Laplace's Rule of Succession
Given a repeated set of n independent experiments Xi with s successes (Xi=1), what is the probability of the n+1 experiment being a success:
P(Xn+1=1|n∑i=1Xi=s)=s+1n+2This is known as Laplace’s Rule of Succession.
Given a repeated set of n independent experiments Xi with s successes (Xi=1), what is the probability of the n+1 experiment being a success:
P(Xn+1=1|n∑i=1Xi=s)=s+1n+2This is known as Laplace’s Rule of Succession.